Researchers Use Conditional Survival Approach to Assess Disease Recurrence Risk and Survival in Multiple Myeloma

A recent study assessed the risk of disease recurrence and survival in multiple myeloma patients, using a conditional survival approach.

“Unlike the traditional method of overall survival prediction in patients with cancer, conditional survival predicts the survival of patients dynamically throughout the course of disease, identifying how a prognosis evolves over time,” the researchers explained.

They identified 815 consecutive multiple myeloma patients using the German Study Group on Multiple Myeloma (Deutsche Studiengruppe Multiples Myelom; DSMM) incentive. More than 10 variables were assessed upon diagnosis and on numerous occasions during follow-up; these variables included patient- and multiple myeloma-specific measures. Disease- and host-related risks were used to calculate the odds of five-year survival.

Median follow-up and overall survival were 10.3 years and 5.1 years, respectively. Five-year conditional survival probabilities significantly changed when using data collected at the initial diagnosis updated overtime versus using follow-up data. When analyzing multivariate Cox regression models, the hazard ratio (HR) for surviving 0 to 5 years was 1 for patients aged <60 years. HRs for patients aged 60 to 69 years and >70 years were 1.68 and 3.17, respectively. Factors associated with declining HRs for age were surviving five years, having advanced stages of disease (II/III), and having unfavorable cytogenetics; progressive disease significantly impacted HRs for survival at one year (1.85), three years (2.11), and five years (2.14).

The study was published in Cancer.

“To the authors’ knowledge, the current study is the first analysis of conditional survival in patients with multiple myeloma using both baseline and follow‐up risk parameters, demonstrating that regular risk assessment throughout the course of disease and complete follow‐up provide a more reliable conditional survival estimation than baseline assessment alone,” the researchers summarized.