Incidence of Metastatic Prostate Cancer Has Increased Since 2010

A JAMA Network Open study shows that the incidence of metastatic prostate cancer (mPCa) has markedly increased since 2010 and coincides with the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendations against prostate cancer screening.

In this study, Mihir M. Desai, MD, and colleagues utilized the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (SEER; 2004 through 2018) to identify over 836,000 patients with prostate cancer. The researchers assessed incidence trends of mPCa before and after USPSTF recommendations against routine prostate cancer screening.

According to the results, among men aged 45 to 74 years, the incidence rate of distant mPCa (SEER Summary staging) remained stable from 2004 to 2010 (annual percentage change [APC], −0.4 percent; 95 percent confidence interval [CI], −1.7 to 1.1 percent; P = 0.60). However, the researchers observed that incidence increased appreciably from 2010 to 2018 (APC, 5.3 percent; 95 percent CI, 4.5 to 6.0 percent; P < 0.001). The researchers noted that incidence rate of distant mPCa decreased from 2004 to 2011 among men ≥75 years (APC, −1.5 percent; 95 percent CI, −3.0 to 0 percent; P = 0.046), and then increased from 2011 to 2018 (APC, 6.5 percent; 95 percent CI, 5.1 to 7.8 percent; P < 0.001). The researchers further noted that increases in mPCa incidence were particularly significant in non-Hispanic White men (2010-2018 APC, 6.9 percent; 95 percent CI, 5.4 to 8.4 percent; P < 0.001).

“This study suggests that the incidence of mPCA is increasing and might be temporally associated with changes in clinical policy and/or practice (e.g., USPSTF guidelines), which may explain such rapid changes in cancer epidemiological trends,” the authors write.