Res Sq. 2020 Sep 3:rs.3.rs-71086. doi: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-71086/v1. Preprint.
Understanding the underlying mechanisms of COVID-19 progression and the impact of various pharmaceutical interventions is crucial for the clinical management of the disease. We developed a comprehensive mathematical framework based on the known mechanisms of the SARS-CoV-2 virus infection, incorporating the renin-angiotensin system and ACE2, which the virus exploits for cellular entry, key elements of the innate and adaptive immune responses, the role of inflammatory cytokines and the coagulation cascade for thrombus formation. The model predicts the evolution of viral load, immune cells, cytokines, thrombosis, and oxygen saturation based on patient baseline condition and the presence of co-morbidities. Model predictions were validated with clinical data from healthy people and COVID-19 patients, and the results were used to gain insight into identified risk factors of disease progression including older age, co-morbidities such as obesity, diabetes, and hypertension, and dysregulated immune response 1,2 . We then simulated treatment with various drug classes to identify optimal therapeutic protocols. We found that the outcome of any treatment depends on the sustained response rate of activated CD8 + T cells and sufficient control of the innate immune response. Furthermore, the best treatment -or combination of treatments – depends on the pre-infection health status of the patient. Our mathematical framework provides important insight into SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis and could be used as the basis for personalized, optimal management of COVID-19.