Exploration of spatial-temporal varying impacts on COVID-19 cumulative case in Texas using geographically weighted regression (GWR)

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Apr 10. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-13653-8. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Since COVID-19 is extremely threatening to human health, it is significant to determine its impact factors to curb the virus spread. To tackle the complexity of COVID-19 expansion on a spatial-temporal scale, this research appropriately analyzed the spatial-temporal heterogeneity at the county-level in Texas. First, the impact factors of COVID-19 are captured on social, economic, and environmental multiple facets, and the communality is extracted through principal component analysis (PCA). Second, this research uses COVID-19 cumulative case as the dependent variable and the common factors as the independent variables. According to the virus prevalence hierarchy, the spatial-temporal disparity is categorized into four quarters in the GWR analysis model. The findings exhibited that GWR models provide higher fitness and more geodata-oriented information than OLS models. In El Paso, Odessa, Midland, Randall, and Potter County areas in Texas, population, hospitalization, and age structures are presented as static, positive influences on COVID-19 cumulative cases, indicating that they should adopt stringent strategies in curbing COVID-19. Winter is the most sensitive season for the virus spread, implying that the last quarter should be paid more attention to preventing the virus and taking precautions. This research is expected to provide references for the prevention and control of COVID-19 and related infectious diseases and evidence for disease surveillance and response systems to facilitate the appropriate uptake and reuse of geographical data.

PMID:33837938 | DOI:10.1007/s11356-021-13653-8