U.S. lung cancer mortality is projected to decrease by 79% by 2065, according to a comparative model study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine.
“Tobacco control efforts implemented since the 1960s will continue to reduce lung cancer rates well into the next half-century,” the authors noted. “Additional prevention and cessation efforts will be required to sustain and expand these gains to further reduce the lung cancer burden in the United States.”
— U-M Rogel Cancer Center (@UMRogelCancer) October 9, 2018
The researchers used four simulation models of the natural history of lung cancer that explicitly relate temporal smoking patterns to lung cancer rates. The models were developed using U.S. data on smoking from 1964 to 2015 and lung cancer mortality from 1969 to 2010.
Despite the expected growth, aging, and longer life expectancy of the U.S. population, the annual number of lung cancer deaths was projected to decrease from 135,000 to 50,000, representing a 63% reduction.
Thought-provoking models of lung cancer mortality & smoking. But self-stated limitation is crucial: assumed no changes to tobacco control efforts or changes from lung cancer screening.
Call to action: all #LCSM clinicians/researchers – fix this limitation!https://t.co/Gy02BRraBA pic.twitter.com/pkhf8p114U
— Christopher slatore (@chrisslatore) October 8, 2018
However, 4.4 million deaths from lung cancer are still projected to occur during this time frame, with about 20 million adults aged 30 to 84 years continuing to smoke in 2065.
Source: Annals of Internal Medicine