Lung cancer death rates among women worldwide are expected to increase over the next 12 years—climbing at a faster rate than deaths for breast cancer, according to a study published in Cancer Research.
The study predicted mortality rates for lung and breast cancer through 2030 across 52 nations, using data from the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Researchers calculated age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) per 100,000 between 2008 and 2014, and then used a Bayesian log-linear Poisson model to project rates for 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030.
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By 2030, the median ASMR for lung cancer will increase from 11.2 to 16.0. For breast cancer, the rate will fall from 16.1 to 14.7.
Mortality rates will vary by nation. Lung cancer death rates will decrease in 36 of the 52 countries studied, and breast cancer rates will go decrease in 15 of them. Researchers also said that in about half of the countries, lung cancer death rates have already exceeded those of breast cancer, or will do so before 2030.
Lung and breast cancer death rates are higher in high-income countries than middle-income ones because tobacco use is not widespread in middle-income nations, the study authors stated.
Jose M. Martínez-Sánchez, PhD, MPH, BSc, one of the study authors, said, “If we do not implement measures to reduce smoking behaviors in this population, lung cancer mortality will continue to increase throughout the world.”