European Lung Cancer Model Predicts More Cancers Than U.S. Model

A prospective trial compared two screening methods for at-risk lung cancer patients—one used by Canadian, Australian, and European public health organizations (PLCOm2012) versus the model used by used by the United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF). The study found that the European model detected more cancers. The results were presented at the World Conference on Lung Cancer in Barcelona, Spain.

European model predicts more lung cancer cases

A total of 5,013 patients were screened, and 110 had lung cancer. Almost all cancers (99%) were found using PLCOm2012 compared to 77% using the USPSTF criteria; 24 cancers (21.8%) were detected by PLCOm2012 alone, while just one (0.9%) was found by USPSTF criteria alone.

The International Lung Screening Trial (ILST) was established to follow at-risk patients with lung cancer over a six-year period to determine if a prediction model was more superior. Participants in the ILST trial received two annual screenings.

The PLCOm2012 model recommends computed tomography screening for patients if they have a six-year risk of more than 1.5%. Most current guidelines, including those of the USPSTF and Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, recommend screening for those who have smoked 30 pack-years or more, smoked within 15 years, and aged 55 to 80 years.

“Our analysis of ILST data indicates that classification accuracy of lung cancer screening outcomes supports the PLCOm2012 criteria over the USPSTF criteria,” said lead researcher Stephen Lam, MD, of the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, in a press release.