This article was originally published here
Eur Rev Med Pharmacol Sci. 2021 Nov;25(22):7135-7143. doi: 10.26355/eurrev_202111_27267.
OBJECTIVE: Understanding the evolutionary dynamics of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in the coming months is a matter of great importance and urgency for governments worldwide, making fundamental decisions based on what is known about the transmission mechanisms of the virus and its survival in the environment. The present study aimed to evaluate the impact of demographic variables, solar radiation and relative humidity on the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic of the various regions in Italy.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: The retrospective longitudinal study was conducted, and data used in this study was obtained from the Italian Health Ministry. Descriptive statistics included mean, frequency, and percentage, and results presented by graphs were calculated.
RESULTS: The infection trend was investigated by comparing it with the demographic situation and the irradiation indices of solar ultraviolet light that are detected with the changing seasons. The present study reported that the geographic areas with higher population density and lower solar radiation during the autumn and winter months were most affected by SARS-CoV-2.
CONCLUSIONS: The analysis carried out can provide a predictive model for the future phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy, regardless of the adoption of lockdown measures and behavioral factors.