A logistic model for age-specific COVID-19 case-fatality rates

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JAMIA Open. 2020 Apr 13;3(2):151-153. doi: 10.1093/jamiaopen/ooaa025. eCollection 2020 Jul.


To develop a mathematical model to characterize age-specific case-fatality rates (CFR) of COVID-19. Based on 2 large-scale Chinese and Italian CFR data, a logistic model was derived to provide quantitative insight on the dynamics between CFR and age. We inferred that CFR increased faster in Italy than in China, as well as in females over males. In addition, while CFR increased with age, the rate of growth eventually slowed down, with a predicted theoretical upper limit for males (32%), females (21%), and the general population (23%). Our logistic model provided quantitative insight on the dynamics of CFR.

PMID:32734152 | PMC:PMC7382619 | DOI:10.1093/jamiaopen/ooaa025